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Business live: Interest rate cut unlikely after inflation falls

LIVE
Updated 9 minutes ago

Market expects Bank of England to hold rate despite sharp fall in key services inflation

A shopper selects oranges in a Tesco supermarket.
Food prices rose in May, adding to upward pressures on inflation
AFP
Martin StrydomSimon Freeman
The Times

Key moments

Raspberry Pi executives sell shares as lock-up ends
FTSE 100 to open 8.5 points higher, with focus on Middle East
Oil around five-month high over possible direct US military involvement in Israel-Iran conflict
US Federal Reserve set to hold interest rates
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9 minutes ago
12.20pm

Adobe takes another floor at Old Street offices and extends lease

The American software giant Adobe has taken another floor at White Collar Factory, the office block on London’s Old Street roundabout that is best-known for its rooftop running track.

Adobe now occupies five floors within the building totalling 67,000 sq ft — 25 per cent more than it had previously. Its rent has gone up to £4.5 million a year and it has also extended its lease to 2038.

White Collar Factory, Old Street
The top floor of the White Collar Factory, located on London’s Old Street roundabout, has a running track
DERWENT

Paul Williams, chief executive of Derwent, the FTSE 250 landlord that owns White Collar Factory, said the deal further highlights the “buoyancy of London’s office market”.

After a spate of downsizing in the immediate aftermath of the lockdowns, the recent trend among larger businesses has been to take more office space.

Cushman & Wakefield, the property agent, analysed every office leasing deal over 5,000 sq ft in 2024 and found that of the 408 businesses that moved last year, 320 of them — 78 per cent — upsized.

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44 minutes ago
11.45am

Chocolate price rises at fastest pace on record

The price of cocoa has been on the rise due to adverse weather in west Aftrica, where the ingredient is produced
The price of cocoa has been on the rise due to adverse weather in west Aftrica, where the ingredient is produced
DADO GALDIERI/BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

Chocolate prices jumped 17.7 per cent in the year to May, the biggest increase since records began in 2016, ONS inflation data showed.

The rise has been blamed on the increased cost of cocoa, which has been rising after shortages due to adverse weather in west Africa, where much of the world’s cocoa beans are harvested.

In March, the consumer group Which?, said the price of Easter eggs made companies including Cadbury, Mars and Terry’s had risen by as much as 50 per cent. Many had also shrunk in size.

1 hour ago
11.29am

Speedy Hire suffers slowdown

Speedy Hire has cautioned over “challenging” conditions due to government spending delays, after shutting eight depots in the face of higher costs.

Shares in the London-listed equipment hire firm dropped after it reported revenues fell 1.2 per cent to £416.6 million for the year to March 31, pushing the company to a full-year loss of £1.5 million, from a £5.1 million profit a year earlier.

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It comes after the government delayed spending on major infrastructure projects, such as Network Rail’s development programme.

Dan Evans, chief executive, said: “We are focused on what we can control, and we will continue to manage our cost base and balance our investment decisions through the economic cycle.”

1 hour ago
11.15am

Tullow Oil sinks on deal collapse

Shares in Tullow Oil, the London-listed, west Africa-focused oil explorer, have sunk almost one-fifth after reports that merger talks have collapsed with Canadian rival Meren Energy.

Sky News reported that discussions about a tie-up were progressing as recently as this month but are now understood to have been terminated.

Tullow Oil was once a stock market darling with a valuation above £15 billion, but has fallen dramatically in recent years and is now worth around £275 million. Last December, it saw merger talks involving Kosmos Energy fall apart.

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Meren Energy, which is jointly listed in Canada and Sweden, is worth just shy of £1 billion and has announced a $500m warchest to spend on acquiring assets in Africa.

1 hour ago
10.44am

PZ Cussons sells stake in Nigerian business

PZ Cussons has sold its 50 per cent stake in PZ Wilmar, its Nigerian edible oils business, for £51 million to its joint venture partner Wilmer International.

Jonathan Myers, the chief executive, said the sale would strengthen the balance sheet of the consumer goods company — its brands include Imperial Leather soap and Carex handwash — and reduce the risk associated with trading in Nigeria. It has suffered from the devaluation of the Nigerian naira.

Guidance for adjusted operating profit in the year to the end of May was cut to between £52 million and £55 million from £52 million to £58 million.

It follows a double-digit decline in sales at St Tropez, the self-tanning business it is trying to sell, and £2 million in costs for the extended producer responsibility levy for the recycling the household packaging they produce.

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The shares slid by a ½p, or 0.6 per cent, to 78p.

2 hours ago
9.59am

Raspberry Pi executives sell shares as lock-up ends

The microcomputer maker was founded in 2008
The microcomputer maker was founded in 2008
GETTY IMAGES

The Raspberry Pi founder and his finance chief have not waited around to cash in more than £2 million of their shares after their lock-up agreements ended.

Eben Upton, who has run the microcomputer manufacturer since founding it in 2008, and Richard Boult, the chief financial officer, were prevented from selling any of their shares for a year following last summer’s initial public offering.

Would it be fruitful to invest in Raspberry Pi right now?

With the 365-day lock-up period now over, Upton, 47, has sold a £1.8 million stake, while Boult, 59, has sold £455,000 of his shares. The company said it was for “personal financial planning reasons”.

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Both men have kept hold of most of their shares: Upton still owns a stake worth around £11 million and Boult has shares worth just over £2 million.

However, their decision to cash in has knocked Raspberry Pi shares down by 13¾p, or 3 per cent, to 444p.

2 hours ago
9.49am

House price growth hit by stamp duty raid

The annual rate of house price growth halved as a stamp duty holiday ended, according to provisional Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures issued this morning.

The average UK house price increased by 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to April, halving from 7.0 per cent growth recorded in the 12 months to March.

The average UK house price in April was £265,000. Stamp duty discounts became less generous for some home buyers from April prompting a stampede in activity as buyers sought to get ahead of the changes.

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2 hours ago
9.34am

Meta’s $100m bonuses to lure rival

While US tech giant Amazon is busy culling white-collar workers, Sam Altman, the boss of OpenAI, has claimed that Facebook-owner Meta is offering his employees bonuses of $100 million to recruit them.

Competition for AI talent has reached fever pitch with researchers are being courted like professional athletes in the belief that individual contributors can make or break companies.

Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg is aiming to hire around 50 people for a new “superintelligence” unit, almost all of whom he’s recruiting personally. Earlier this week, Meta invested $14.3 billion in start-up Scale AI and hired its top boss, Alexandr Wang, to lead a new “superintelligence” team.

“They [Meta] started making giant offers to a lot of people on our team,” Altman said on the Uncapped podcast. “You know, like $100 million signing bonuses, more than that [in] compensation per year.”

“At least, so far, none of our best people have decided to take them up on that,” Altman said.

3 hours ago
9.23am

Amazon to cut jobs as AI takes over white-collar roles

Rollout of generative AI and agents will reduce Amazon’s total corporate workforce in the next few years, Andy Jassy, the chief executive of the online retailer, said in a note to employees on Tuesday.

The chief executive told staff: “We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today.”

Read in full: Amazon to cut jobs as AI takes over white-collar roles

3 hours ago
9.06am

May’s inflation fall is an illusion

Official data suggests the UK’s rate of inflation eased from 3.5 per cent in April to 3.4 per cent in May — but in reality the figure was unchanged, standing at 3.4 per cent in both months.

The discrepancy follows an error made in the initial calculation of April’s inflation rate, which was initially reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), on May 21 at 3.5 per cent.

On June 5, the ONS issued a statement saying the figure was incorrect: data from the Department for Transport had overstated the number of vehicles subject to an increase in Vehicle Excise Duty, which in turn led to the ONS overstating April’s overall rate of inflation by 0.1 percentage points.

But while April’s rate is now known to have been wrong, the ONS has a policy of not revising official inflation figures in subsequent publications. Which means April’s inflation figure will continue to be stated by the ONS as 3.5 per cent, despite it actually being 3.4 per cent.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey has warned that unreliable ONS data is leaving rate-setters “flying blind” when they take decisions.

3 hours ago
8.55am

FTSE 100 shrugs off Israel-Iran conflict

The FTSE 100 defied ongoing conflict in the Middle East and downbeat inflation data at home to start the session in positive territory, as defence-facing stocks sustained gains and anxiety eased over international travel.

London’s blue chip index was up 0.25 per cent, or 21 points, to 8,855 as trading got underway.

Aerospace engineers Melrose (up 3.6 per cent), Babcock (up 1.2 per cent) and Rolls-Royce (up 0.99 per cent) led the way, with British Airways owner IAG reversing several days of decline to add 1 per cent.

The pound recovered some of its recent losses against the dollar as sticky inflation data all but killed the possibility of the Bank of England cutting rates cut tomorrow.

Brent crude held steady at $76 a barrel, with gold losing some of its shine to trade down 0.2 per cent at $3,383.90 an ounce.

“Material disruption to Iran’s production or export infrastructure would add more upward pressure to prices,” Fitch analysts said. “However, even in the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost, they could be replaced by spare capacity from OPEC+ producers … around 5.7 million barrels a day.”

4 hours ago
8.27am

No interest rate cut tomorrow

There is broad consensus among economists that today’s inflation figures will do little to nudge the Bank of England towards an interest rate cut at its meeting tomorrow.

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that with services inflation still elevated, “the Bank of England [will not] deviate from its recent quarterly rate-cutting path. The Bank looks nailed on to keep rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent tomorrow.”

Raj Badiani, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “May’s headline, services and core inflation rates remain uncomfortably high alongside still troubling regular earnings growth, suggesting the monetary policy committee is unlikely to vote for a second successive rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting.”

Analysts think the MPC will vote 7-2 in favour of leaving rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent.

4 hours ago
8.14am

Inflation: what’s being said

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, said that the government’s “number one mission is to put more money in the pockets of working people through our plan for change”. “We took the necessary choices to stabilise the public finances and get inflation under control after the double-digit increases we saw under the previous government, but we know there’s more to do.”

Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club: “Headline inflation is likely to edge upwards over the next few months, and the increase could be more pronounced if the recent rise in Brent crude oil prices is sustained. But we expect inflation to cool from October, as the positive contribution from the energy category wanes.”

Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: “We expect inflation to bounce around these rates for the rest of the year, averaging 3.4 per cent, and to peak at 3.6 per cent in September when base effects boost energy prices. We are yet to fully factor in higher oil prices following events in the Middle East … we would bump up the peak to 3.8 per cent if oil prices reach $80 a barrel.”

4 hours ago
7.56am

Key figure for rate setters drops sharply

For the Bank of England, the key figure in this morning’s consumer price index release was the rate of services inflation, Jack Barnett writes.

The ONS said services inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in the twelve months to May, in line with the central bank’s latest economic forecasts. That drop will provide much-needed relief for rate setters, who were concerned by April’s services inflation rate of 5.4 per cent, which was well in excess of their forecasts.

Elsewhere, the ONS calculated that food prices increased by 4.4 per cent over the last year, up from growth of 3.4 per cent. Food inflation is now running at its highest level since February 2024.

4 hours ago
7.48am

Inflation: where prices fell and rose

This graph shows the downward and upward pressure on inflation in May. The ONS said the figures for transport and some higher-level aggregates were overstated in April 2025 as a result of an error in the vehicle excise duty component.

4 hours ago
7.36am

AO World profits fall on write-down

Problems at AO World’s mobile business have hit profits
Problems at AO World’s mobile business have hit profits
ALAMY

Full-year profits at the electricals group AO World fell 40 per cent to £20.6 million in the 12 months to the end of March, down from £34.3 million last year as it wrote down the value of its troubled mobile business by £19.6 million. Adjusted profit before tax rose 27 per cent to £44 million, up from £34 million. Revenue over the period rose 9 per cent to £1.13 billion, from £1.03 billion.

“​Performance in the mobile business has been materially behind our expectations … we continue to review our strategy in this area and will not continue to fund material losses going forward,” the company said.

5 hours ago
7.23am

Fall in both core and services inflation

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, was also lower at 3.5 per cent, from 3.8 per cent in April.

Services inflation has eased to 4.7 per cent from 5.4 per cent in April. Services inflation is closely watched by the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC). It is regarded as an indicator of underlying inflationary pressures and is a factor in their decisions about interest rates.

The MPC is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25 per cent tomorrow. In a note to clients Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, wrote: “May’s figures were in line with the Bank of England’s expectations, so today’s release is unlikely to move the needle much for the Bank.”

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said it was encouraging that both core and services inflation slowed. However, she cautioned: “Energy prices have emerged as a key risk to the inflation outlook following the escalation in the Middle East.”

5 hours ago
7.03am

Consumer price inflation dips

The rate of growth in UK inflation dipped to 3.4 per cent in May, down for 3.5 per cent in April but well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.

The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in CPI inflation came from transport. Richard Heys, acting chief economist at the Office for National Statistics, said air fares fell during the month compared with a large rise at the same time last year, as the timing of Easter and school holiday affected pricing. Petrol prices were also lower.

He said this was partially offset by rising food prices, particularly chocolates and meat. The cost of furniture and household goods, including fridge freezers and vacuum cleaners, also increased.

5 hours ago
6.50am

FTSE 100 set to open slightly higher

The FTSE 100 is forecast to open 8.5 points higher when trading starts at 8am. The index of leading UK shares had its worst day in two weeks yesterday as the conflict between Israel and Iran continued. Airlines fell, while BP and Shell rose on higher oil prices.

On Wall Street, President Trump’s early return from the G7 leaders’ summit dashed investor hopes of updates on any new trade agreements, leaving indices lower after a strong start to the week. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.77 per cent, but China’s SSE Composite was flat.

The pound, which was trading close to $1.36 against the dollar early yesterday, has weakened to $1.3444 but is up slightly in early trading on a weaker dollar.

5 hours ago
6.45am

Oil price trades at near five-month high

The oil price is trading around a near five-month high on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

Brent crude futures, which rose 4 per cent on Tuesday, dipped 0.13 per cent to $76.36 a barrel, down from close to $68 a barrel during Asian trading after President Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.

Iran is the Opec’s third-largest producer, pumping out around 3.3 million barrels a day of crude oil. However, analysts at Fitch said that while disruption to Iran’s production or export infrastructure would add upward pressure to prices, “even in the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost, they could be replaced by spare capacity from Opec+ producers … around 5.7 million barrels a day.”

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